2012 The Year of War and Anarchy-Agha.H.Amin

2012 The Year of War and Anarchy
Agha.H.Amin

We are moving towards a great global war and supreme strategic anarchy by remote pilot.

This happened because the pilots who were supposed to man policy and regulate the tide of history , did not have the talent to exercise their due role in history !

These pilots in reality wore the uniforms of pilots but had the caliber of air stewards and air pursers ! This includes Obama, Yusuf Raza Gillani , Man Mohan Singh and the Saudi king.

This brought us into a Sarajevo situation where events started moving decision makers rather than decision makers moving events.

Till 2008 the USA was led by an impetuous pilot with low IQ but a definite strategic decisiveness . A man with limited intellect , but one who could take strategic decisions.

After 2008 the USA got a social climber who looked outwardly smart and bright but lacked statesmanship and had a near zero strategic vision.

Thus Afghanistan after 2008 moved from relative calm into anarchy, as far as the south was concerned.

Pakistan was the worst case.It was led by an opportunist who attempted to please all parties including the Americans , Islamists, Pakistani liberals and the Indians.As a result Pakistan developed such a fatal " confusion of principle" that the whole Pakistani society was fractured down to its deepest foundations.

This military opportunist in turn made peace with the corrupt politicians to elongate his rule and Pakistans whole political fabric was shattered.

The Pakistani military was attacked by Islamists for allegedly being in league with the Christian powers.

The Pakistani military lost its entire credibility when it emerged as the main party in the controversial NRO deal which legitimised past corruption of Pakistans politicians which the army had prosecuted with zeal from 1999 to 2002.

Pakistan became engulfed in two major insurgencies , one with the Islamists and the other in Balochistan.Both have the potential to destabilise and even destroy Pakistan.

The US has no strategy in Afghanistan and is in a catch 22 unless it decides on a strategy of decisive action.

While the US policy makers saw Pakistan as centre of gravity of Islamists including Afghan Taliban the US failed to frame a decisive strategy to deal with Pakistan.

Pakistans nuclear assets , Chinese support and a growing Russian support are principal obstacles that the USA faces in formulating a strategy of decisive action against Pakistan.

Both Iran and Pakistan remain two strategic thorn lands that the USA faces and which are being constantly watered by China and Russia.

The Osama Raid and the Salala incident forced Pakistans military and political elite to close the NATO supply line to Afghanistan.

The memogate scandal also increased the civil military divide in Pakistan but this appears to be more of a US ploy to divide and weaken Pakistan.

The key strategic trends in this scenario are as following---

1. Any US withdrawal in totality or partially would strengthen the Islamists in Afghanistan who will see full or partial defeat  of the US as a great victory of Islam.This would destabilise Pakistan and increase chances of Indo Pak war.
2. US missile shield has permanently alienated Russia and Russia will re-assert itself and take the lead in aiding all anti US forces.
3. US failure to correctly deal with Iran and Pakistan will further destabilise the situation.Pakistans nuclear assets will deter the US from any grand adventure against Pakistan.
4. USA chances of an internal pro US coup in Pakistan by the PPP have become weak after Osama incident and the Salala incident.
5. Chances of a military coup in Pakistan will get stronger as the situation moves and if Pakistani ISIs plan to bring a national government in power with Imran Khan fails.
6. India still views Pakistan as  a grave strategic threat and remains apprehensive of Pakistans strategic nukes.This will ensure that the Indians will continue with aiding the low intensity war in Pakistan.

The US will try to follow a policy that reduces Pakistan to a smaller size and confines Pakistans nukes to Punjab.

In case of Balochistan it will not be difficult for the US to Balkanise Pakistan in case the US decides to support the Baloch secessionists.

Karachi remains a US strategic asset with the MQM and other elements who can paralyse Karachi at a few hours notice.

US policy will be difficult to formulate and execute.

No nuclear state was ever denuclearised by war.The policy that the US will follow will be to destabilise Pakistan and to present it as a danger to world peace like North Korea.

In the process even a small incident can initiate a grand strategic earthquake.

God help the USA,Pakistan,India and the world.