US Strategy-US Strategic Future Options -Camp Leatherneck-Al Qaeda-Haqqani-FATA

In order to have any strategy in war first it is necessary to examine what are the future possibilities :---

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN
A HYPOTHETICAL STUDY


By


Major Agha H Amin (Retired)

Fellow of  Alexandrian Defense Group

http://www.alexandriandefense.org/


06 November 2010




POSSIBILITY ALPHA


1. The US/NATO/CIS/International Community retain a buffer peace keeping zone in Kabul Torkham Corridor.
2. This would act as a damper for Taliban and enable US/NATO/International forces to act as a strategic fire brigade in case of any major upset in Afghanistan.
3. A Russian/CIS force acts as peace keeping force in North Afghanistan in cooperation with Northern Alliance which enjoys support of majority of North Afghanistan population.
4. An Iranian peace keeping force in west Afghanistan.
5. A most balanced and rational solution
6.The only weak link is will the Taliban respect the arrangement ? No because they only fear Allah and have some respect for the B 52 !

POSIBILITY BRAVO


1. US Withdrawal while retaining the Kabul Torkham Corridor and a free for all international intervention.
2. The US/NATO lets the events take their own course with no formal agreement with regional parties.
3. India escalates against Pakistan to reduce pressure on Northern Alliance.

POSSIBILITY CHARLIE


1. THE US/NATO WITHDRAW TOTALLY NOT RETAINING ANY PRESENCE WHILE RUSSIA/CIS/IRAN/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN WILL OCCUPY GREATER PART OF AFGHANISTAN THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA OR CHARLIE BUT CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA ESCALATES AGAINST PAKISTAN TO SUPPORT NORTHERN ALLIANCE .

POSSIBILITY DELTA


1. THE US/NATO TOTALLY WITHDRAWS WHILE ONLY RUSSIA/CIS/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN OCCUPY GREATER AREA THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA BRAVO AND CHARLIE BUT THE CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA PAKISTAN CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AS AN INDIAN RESPONSE TO REDRESS THE BALANCE IN AFGHANISTAN BY ESCALATING AGAINST PAKISTAN.
4. A CONVENTIONAL INDO PAK WAR STARTS INVOLVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

A BROAD VIEW OF STRATEGIC OPERATIONAL AND TACTICAL POSSIBILITIES







Major Agha H Amin (Retired)


24/10/10






This brief paper is a hypothetical visualization of various strategic,operational and tactical possibilities in the Af Pak Region .










Broad Strategic Scenario














BROAD ORIENTATION OF TALIBAN GROUPS














A MORE DETAILED DIVISION OF TALIBAN AND US POSSIBLE STRATEGY


















US Strategy appears to be neutralization and annihilation of the more radical Haqqani Company for strategic operational and face saving and a possible compromise with the less radical Mulla Omar and Hikmatyar Companies.






Another major objective is to drive a wedge in between Pakistani state and Haqqani and Company by focing Pakistan to take military action against Haqqani.






General Hameed Gul in various interviews recently has presented a twin power failure theory spread over 2 to five years :---






1. Failure and withdrawal of US from Afghanistan.


2. Islamists concentrate on Kashmir together with Chinese assistance and Indian withdrawal from Kashmir.


3. Maoists start a grand offensive with Chinese and Pakistani support and India is weakened and destabilized.


4. Islamists expand into Central Asia and Middle East.


5. General Gul also warned Islamists against any confrontation with China.


6. On the other hand US covert policy seems to be to provoke a major Islamist Insurrection in China which Gul says should be avoided at all costs.






US Options






1. Withdraw from Afghanistan without any major strategic denuclearizing of Pakistan and avoid a nuclear conflict which is likely if an attempt is made to denuclearize Pakistan with Indian assistance.Will straight lead to realization of Hameed Gul Theory.


2. There is a possibility that US unilateral withdrawal can lead to another war of interventions in Afghanistan with Russia and Iran in the lead:--










3. Retain partial presence in Afghanistan and partition it .A least risk and pragmatic approach strategically balanced and entirely feasible.










4. Launch an attack in Iran and expand the war . May be beyond US potential if not materially then at least in terms of resolution.A US state department official Doug Scherer termed US leadership as irresolute in case of Iran.


5. Denuclearise Pakistan , Balkanise the region , keep a permanent force in Af Pak .A dangerous possibility which can lead to a major conflict possibly nuclear with China stepping in.