Understanding Pakistan's Strategic Chaos
UNDERSTANDING WHAT REALLY HAPPENED AFTER 5TH JULY 1977
AGHA H AMIN
5TH JULY 2010
This article written with great conviction was sent to all major Pakistani newspapers ! But afraid of the army no one published it ! Even the so called liberal Salman Taseer who also played a policy of playing safe ! Yet this could not save that clever man from being gunned down !
There is no doubt that Pakistan will be destroyed ! It only a question of how many more years !
Also below this article is a strategic analysis carried out later but now its part two.
This article written with great conviction was sent to all major Pakistani newspapers ! But afraid of the army no one published it ! Even the so called liberal Salman Taseer who also played a policy of playing safe ! Yet this could not save that clever man from being gunned down !
There is no doubt that Pakistan will be destroyed ! It only a question of how many more years !
Also below this article is a strategic analysis carried out later but now its part two.
It was 4th July 1977, Lieutenant General Iqbal Khan told his headquarters staff that at last Mr Z.A. Bhutto and the opposition alliance PNA had reached an amicable peace settlement. My father, a newly promoted brigadier, was one of his staff.
On 5th July 1977 General Zia, the army chief, handpicked by PM Z.A. Bhutto (against the very advice of the Military Secretary's Branch) delivered the fatal blow; not only to democracy but to Pakistan's future. Martial Law was imposed on 5th July 1977.
While Ayub Khan, although a usurper, had separated the military from politics, Zia's system of things imposed the military over politics. That system unfortunately carries on until today.
Zia's worst action was turning Pakistan into a US-Saudi military base against the USSR.
This he did not because the USSR was a threat to Pakistan but because Zia's military dictatorship was under threat from Pakistan's masses and political forces.
The use of non state actors as state proxies was firmly adopted by Zia as a cheap tool of foreign policy and this policy was reversed by no one, including the so-called very secular Benazir or the not so liberal Nawaz Sharif.
Foreign policy - at least the India and Afghanistan policy - became an exclusive affair of Pakistan's military establishment. No civilian has reversed this policy to date.
The political fabric of the country was deeply and fatally infiltrated, and all politicians became tools of blackmail by the state security apparatus.
Benazir Bhutto, although a popular leader, was compromised in such a way that when she came into power in 1988 and 1993 she dared not interfere with the military establishment regarding Pakistan's India or Afghanistan policies.
A military relationship with the USA and Saudi Arabia was established which bypassed Pakistan's political organs as well as the US Congress or Senate and the Department of Defense. CIA and State Department bureaucrats established a direct hotline with Pakistan's military establishment. This relationship survived despite Clinton and remains to this day.
Sectarian and ethnic divisions were encouraged, thus the creation of Sipah I Sahaba, MQM, the baradari culture in Punjab thanks to the 1985 non party elections etc.
The judiciary was successfully coerced into submission and dissenting judges removed by blackmail and persecution. This has remained a fact despite the Iftikhar Chaudhry phenomena - which was a case of a clash of egos rather than a clash of principles - as the valiant judge took a stand when pushed against the wall over a matter of personal survival, having earlier supported the same dictator in distorting Pakistan's constitution.
Religious intolerance was fine tuned and Ahmadis and Shias targeted. A strict bar on promotion of Ahmadi officers beyond colonel level was imposed in the military which continued from 1977 to 1992.
Hadood laws were introduced and done in words of a direct participant IG Ch Sardar Ali so that Saudis could be pleased and milked into giving Pakistan financial aid.
The sad part is that most of Zia's actions were not reversed.
Benazir came into power in 1988 and 1993 under a secret agreement and abdicated control over a major part of Pakistan's foreign and security policy to the Pakistani military establishment. In 2008 also the PPP was allowed into power by NRO under a shady secret deal and, to date, the PPP has no control over Pakistan's foreign or security policy despite being the de jure ruling party of Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif came near ZAB in being a strong political leader when he sacked a naval and a military chief, but was chastised with years in exile and a compromised return to Pakistan under a secret protocol. The new Nawaz Sharif is a weaker Nawaz Sharif represented by a more pragmatic Shahbaz Sharif in power, whose first rule of business is to ask the military before doing anything.
Thus while Zia's mortal remains were burnt over the Hindu Shamshan Ghat over Basti Lal Kamal on that historic 17th August 1988, his system remains in force with a Pakistan ruled by politicians in name and a foreign and security policy firmly in the hands of Pakistan's military establishment. This ideally suits the USA, the Saudis and Pakistan's military establishment.
The gist of the problem is that Pakistan's civilian political leadership has no clue or control over what Pakistan is doing in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Baluchistan, or the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). This explains why the USA has secret agreements with Pakistan's military establishment. It's safe, it's practical and it's a one window operation!
The weak link in this whole chain is the misuse of Islam by Pakistan's civil and military elite since 1947. The bluff was called in 2001 and Pakistan is now in the grip of a civil war (since 2003) with no end in sight. A war which has the potential of destroying Pakistan unless good captains can deal successfully with the immensely adverse wind and waves.
The fatal question is can such an anachronistic arrangement last despite being supported by so called demi-gods like the USA and Saudi Arabia? The answer is no, as proven by Pakistan's ongoing civil war in the killing fields of Afghanistan, FATA,the GHQ attack etc !
Pakistans generals and their apologists can give a million excuses but the hard fact is that Pakistan Army is a master in destroying Pakistan as they brilliantly did under Ayub in East Pakistan and under Musharraf in Balochistan !
Pakistans generals and their apologists can give a million excuses but the hard fact is that Pakistan Army is a master in destroying Pakistan as they brilliantly did under Ayub in East Pakistan and under Musharraf in Balochistan !
5 July 2010
--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." --
Albert Einstein !!!
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22151765/History-of-Pakistan-Army-from-1757-to-1971
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars-1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-AND-OPERATIONAL-ANALYSIS-BY-A-H-AMIN
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21686885/TALIBAN-WAR-IN-AFGHANISTAN
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22455178/Letters-to-Command-and-Staff-College-Quetta-Citadel-Journal
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23150027/Pakistan-Army-through-eyes-of-Pakistani-Generals
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23701412/War-of-Independence-of-1857
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22457862/Pakistan-Army-Journal-The-Citadel
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21952758/1971-India-Pakistan-War
http://www.scribd.com/doc/25171703/BOOK-REVIEWS-BY-AGHA-H-AMIN
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PART TWO:--
1978 Revolution ,Pakistan Pakistans
Agha H Amin
The April 1978 Saur Revolution was a historic event in modern history.
While the revolution merits a whole book or many volumes , we will just very briefly discuss its salient parts.
Power shifted in Afghanistan
Although the coups major leaders were Pashtuns from Paktia and Khost like the indomitable Aslam Watanjar the PDPA was essentially a mix of Persian speaking urbanised intellectuals organised as Parchamis and a more radiacal Pashtun section from Paghman Khost and Paktia known as Parchamis.The Khalqis were rash , bold , impetuous and radiacal , while the Parchamis were more moderate.
The Saur revolution proved a gold mine for Pakistans illegitimate military junta of Zia which till April 1978 was politically an illegitimate bastard child regime.This regime used the Afghan revolution as a pretext to get dollars from USA and Saudi Arabia.Power shifted in Pakistan from a more progressive PPP regime to a more Punjabised regime dominated by refugees from Jullundhur and Batala etc .
Since this new clique was fatherless and illegitimate it used religion as well as caste as a political tool.Thus it outlawed political parties and Pakistani politics became more ethnic andsub ethnic with Punjab divided into castes as political forces and Sindh divided into urban and rural ! The division of Sindh into urban and rural was a planned reaction by the Pakistani illegal military regime as a counter to the MRD Movement of 1983 which had its roots in rural Sindh !
Pashtuns were used as cannon fodder by the military junta as proxies in Afghan war and thus the seeds of religious extremism were planted in Pakistan
Foreign policy and all security and defence matters in Pakistan
All civilian governments which came into power after 1988 elections in Pakistan
It would not be wrong to call Pakistan 5th July 1977 , with a short stint of full civilian control by the second PML N Government from February 1997 to October 1999 !
There is no doubt that Pakistan is a state with dual controls since 5th July 1977 with a civilian co pilot who in reality is a flight steward and a hidden real piolt who controls major financial and security issues !
The imbalance in this situation are three new factors i.e (1) religious extremism which is now on a reverse boomerang course against the Pakistani elite (2) regional centrifugal forces in Balochistan (3) an increased foreign interest in Pakistan where foreign powers led by USA see Pakistan as an anachroninistic and adventurist state .
Five cardinal fact stand out in this scenario , (1) The USA severely lacks long term strategic insight and US policy is run on short term objectives which is well proven from how it behaved after USSR withdrew from Afghanistan and till 9/11 (2) Pakistan alone will not be able to restore strategic stability in Afghanistan or even Pakistan itself .Its military which controls major part of Pakistans financial and security policy is not intellectually capable of understanding the immense complexity of strategy andgeopolitics (3) The Pakistani state will not be able to control Islamic extremism (4) The multiplicity of state and non state actors can lead to severe strategic stability culminating in an India Pakistan nuclear stand off.
The Islamists are far more powerful than they seem ! The Pakistani military is not as clever as it thinks it is ! The Americans are strategically pathetic ! Thus the issue will be decided by random and unforeseeable forces !
Certainly what mean mortals who are in charge of affairs in this whole complex drama want may not happen ! Thus the relative less visible forces will take over !
The scene is thus set for strategic anarchy ! The real danger is that Pakistan
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THE FUTURE STRATEGIC OPTIONS
Saif al-Adel-An Unorthodox and Unconventional Leader
By
Agha.H.Amin
Saif al-Adel is an experienced low intensity conflict man who has seen his apprenticeship in the Soviet Afghan War.
He had a stint with the US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania.
He is known to be a master of the unorthodox and appears to have read Sun Tzu as well as Sun Pin and Ho Chi Minh.His favourite method of attack are explosives. He left Egypt shortly after the assasination of Sadaat a man most despised by Egyptians in 1981 .
After 9/11 he fled to Iran also .And after eating iranian caviar and palao al qaeda and many other sunni extremist groups have discovered that the shias are not as bad as brought out in the much paid by Saudi Arabian propaganda.The way Iran as a state received many Al Qaeda and Afghan commanders after 9/11 has improved the Iranian perception,while prevalent propaganda mostly saudi sponsored and financed was deadly anti shia.similarly the way in which the pakistani state abandoned them for US dollars significantly diminished the respect for pakistani state in al qaeda eyes (although non state actors wholeheartedly supported and sheltered al qaeda after 9/11 in Pakistan).The post 9/11 Al Qaeda is thus more anti Pakistan and anti Saudi and both states are their logical targets.Any one of these go down (as is the aimed AQ strategy) and all US efforts and money wasted in GWOT can be straight multiplied by zero.
He is regarded as close to Iranians as he was in Iran for a long time after 9/11 enjoying official Iranian patronage , a good safe house with ample stocks of Iranian caviar and tuna fish.this makes him more anti saudi and more any anti state.he may bring an ovopen change in al qaeda strategy and intensify the attacks on saudi installations as well as pakistani installations.a younger man who is more into technology and known to have some most unorthodox and unconventional ideas about the ongoing great low intensity war.he will give the corporation a new technical dmension. Demise of Bin Laden has actually given Al Qaeda a new life with a new leader who has no qualms or reservations about attacking Saudi Arabia as well as the Pakistani states.With both states now on the sharp path to decline and both viewed as most despicable and dubious by their own masses , Al Qaeda may now resurge as never before.
They have already redeployed in force in Nuristan,Laghman,Kunnar and Kapisa provinces.
So we are all set for grand strategic anarchy !
HA HA HA
All this was not inevitable but has many links with US faux pas and the most inefficient Saudi and Pakistani states both of which are deeply divided in the war against Al Qaeda.
I have had nothing to do with conventional religion all my life but I can say with conviction that both Pakistani and Saudi states are not just equipped or have the capability to fight Al Qaeda ! The question is not whether it will happen or not but only how many more years they will take in collapsing !
My fear is that Pakistan will not be able to turn around and the same is Saudi Arabias fate ! Pakistan is actually almost a suicide bombers factory with ten thousand potential suicide bombers being produced every day , just because of sheer disgust with exorbitant official corruption ,unemployment , inflation and hunger !
The key stone in any war against extremists has to be good governance in countries which are the major areas of operations.This is seriously missing in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan where some 2 % own 80 percent of the wealth and pay just 15 to 20 % of all taxes !
The issue why extremism is growing is not Islam but poverty and lack of equal opportunity !
The reason thus is simply mega corruption and total moral breakdown in both states ! This includes the Pakistani and Saudi armies , intelligence , politicians ,police,para military forces as well as the civil services.
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