And so, with a seemingly significant U.S. election just ahead, what kinds of thoughts are there in the rest of the world about McCain and Obama? How do the powers that be in Pakistan lean? Does it matter elsewhere who gets elected or is the U.S. just a heavyweight bully no matter who sits behind the desk in the Oval Office?Maybe a related question.... is it the perception from across the globe that the Pentagon rules the White House, or that the White House rules the Pentagon?
Just an observer of history.
ennyman
ennyman
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i think the richard nixon and kissinger team were the only ones in recent history who gave a tough time to the state department bureaucrats....rest all presidents were windbags.....carter was ineffective and his human rights rhetoric was all gimmicks...he praised the shahs repressive regime...he sent death squad training teams to central america...he authorised the dirty war against the leftist afghan regime long before the USSR invaded afghanistan....reagan again had little grey matter....clinton did poorly in foreign policy and concentrated on internal politics.....bush was overclouded by pops friends....and now mc cain or obama....mc cain seems more seasoned but they say he is sick and obama again is an untested horse.....all said and done it appears that the script will be made somewhere in the state department and pentagon....but indecisive as ever.....little useful or good is expected...the situation is simply too complex and a very seasoned statesman with an exceptionally good team is needed...i doubt if both have that kind of potential....more chaos and no decision
ReplyDeleteNow just see the failures:--
ReplyDelete1-In 1991 the war not taken into Iraq and the Sddam regime not destroyed .That left USA with three other unsolved problems , Iran,Korea,Growing Islamic Extremism in Pakistan
2-In 2001 Afghanistan attacked with a very low force ratio and taliban allowed to conduct an organised withdrawal
3-Iraq attacked in 2003 while Afghanistan not pacified and Iran was becoming a more serious contender
4-Resultantly a Shia block created from Iran to Lebanon,all contiguous.
5-No progress in Afghanistan and la6- of infantry led to resurgence of Taliban in between 2004 and 2008.
7-Now a stalemate with no objective achieved:--
a. Afghanistan-- unresolved
b. Iraq-not stable
c. Iran--defiant
d. North Korea--Erratic and
unpredictable
e. Pakistan-- the federal govt
fast losing control and
possibly somalisation or
some kind of permanent low
intensity war situation
with non state actors being
stronger--a martial law may
not be ruled out
NOW THE OPTIONS:--
1-Withdraw from Iraq while retining sizeable bases in Middle East and Afghanistan at Bagram,Herat,Jalalabad,Mazar and Kunduz.Vacate the Pashtun areas of Kandahar ,Helmand,Zabul,Ghazni,Paktika and Khost.The non Pashtuns in Afghanistan have nothing against US forces and are taking active part in the reconstruction process.This would require linking herat with a good road from mazar to herat via badghis which is already ongoing
OR
2-A more aggressive posture which would require a great deal of risk and forethought.
3-Withdraw altogether from Iraq and Afghanistan while retaining bases in Qatar,Oman and concentrate on homeland security.the victorious Islamists who will occupy the vacuum will within 2 years be fighting against russia and china...taliban would be killing shias again and fighting with iran...the arabs now doing nothing will arm the sunnis in iraq against iran
option three is the best option for USA as well as pakistan
The gist of the problem is that :--
ReplyDelete1-The USA is doing all the fighting while Russia and China are enjoying seeing the USA being drained.
2-The Oil rich Arab regimes are relaxing with no more an Iranian threat and no more Saddam type dictators.
The solution may be :--
1-Withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan.This would result in Islamists occupying the vacuum .
2-Within two to three areas the Islamists would be in conflict with Russia and China .
3-The oil rich Arab regimes would be arming Iraq against Iran and now moving their ass to fight the twin threats of extremism and iran.
4-Russia and China will be severely worried about their soft underbelly opposite Afghanistan and Pakistan.
5-India would also be severely unnerved with an increased menace of terrorism originating from Afghanistan.
6-Afghanistan meantime will be divided into Pashtun and non Pashtun with China,Iran and Russia supporting the non pashtun state.USA will be free of all the troubles.
7-USA needs to concentrate on its home security ,if necessary deport all immigrants considered a threat or a potential threat.Adopt an Isolationist approach and let the Europeans and Chinese and fat oil rich Arabs fight the Islamists.Presently its the opposite.The Chinese,Russians,Oil rich Arabs are relaxing while the USA is doing the fighting and figthing a war against non state actors with no tangible centre of gravity .A war which what to talk of USA , no one can win !